The Key for Real to Dream of a Comeback to Defeat Arsenal: Attack the “Substitute”
Real Madrid could have targeted a weak point in Arsenal’s defence to turn things around in the second leg.
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The Rise of the Substitute
Real Madrid will have no choice but to go on the offensive at the Bernabeu, looking to overturn the 3-0 deficit they suffered at the Emirates in the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final. Arsenal have a huge psychological advantage ahead of the return leg.
Despite Real Madrid using all sorts of psychological solutions to motivate their players, they face an Arsenal side that has defended extremely solidly in the Mikel Arteta era.
Kiwior and Saliba Shut Down Real Madrid’s Attack In the First Leg At Emirates
This season, Arsenal have never conceded 3 goals in a match, regardless of the competition or opponent.
They have conceded 2 goals, but not 3 goals. In the previous 2 seasons, the 2022/23 season was the most recent season that Arsenal lost by 3 goals or more (Man City and Brighton).
Each season, Arteta has strengthened his team’s defense with high-quality and well-trained players.
Jakub Kiwior is often not mentioned when talking about Arsenal’s best defenders. It is understandable, because Kiwior’s first season was not stable. In the second season, Kiwior contributed to Arsenal’s early elimination by Liverpool in the FA Cup.
With the Saliba – Gabriel pair playing very solidly, the Polish center-back is only mentioned by Arsenal fans when talking about his fiery fiancee who works as a dancer.
But Gabriel’s injury has put Kiwior into the Gunners’ starting lineup. Kiwior has played 21 games this season, starting 12, and has not been too bad, especially in the Champions League.
He has started 5 games in the C1 Cup, and helped Arsenal keep 3 clean sheets, Arsenal won 4 and drew 1 of those 5 games.
Kiwior Has Started More This Season Than The Last Two Seasons, and He Has Played Quite Well In The Champions League
Arteta‘s trust in Kiwior has changed significantly. At the beginning of the 2023/24 season, when Gabriel was not a starter, Arteta chose Ben White to partner Saliba instead of Kiwior.
Kiwior‘s improvement has come from adapting to the pace of English football more, and he has become more muscular to deal with the extremely strong strikers of the Premier League.
Weaknesses that are Hard to Exploit
Real Madrid are preparing for a comeback against Arsenal and they are likely to target Kiwior. Kiwior is still considered the most significant weakness in Arsenal’s defense.
Real Madrid may have seen something from Kiwior when witnessing a move early in the first leg, a throw-in situation that the defender handled poorly and created danger on David Raya’s goal.
But bullying Kiwior is not easy: Mbappe could not get past the centre-back in the first leg.
Kiwior may struggle against big, meaty strikers in England, but Real Madrid do not have such a striker after Joselu left.
Mbappe is not that kind of striker and therefore does not bully Kiwior.
Mbappe Fails to Overcome Kiwior in the First Leg
Real Madrid should not think that they can rely on Mbappe’s speed to defeat Kiwior. Kiwior’s speed is not slow: As soon as he joined Arsenal 2 years ago, Kiwior broke the record for short-distance acceleration on the club’s training ground. Saka, Tierney, Bellerin, Walcott are the old record holders, and Kiwior surpassed all of their milestones.
Not only that, Kiwior is probably better than Gabriel and Saliba in terms of ball handling and escaping pressing.
This skill is the reason Kiwior emerged at Spezia, coach Thiago Motta often used Kiwior in the defensive midfield position to control the ball and launch from a distance.
Therefore, if they do not want Real to put constant pressure, Arsenal need Kiwior to keep the ball as best as possible to relieve the pressure.
Exploiting Kiwior’s position, Real Madrid will only hope for high crosses, but if they use that tactic, they will only have to call Jude Bellingham, or even Antonio Rudiger to play as striker.
Let’s see if Carlo Ancelotti dares to do that. If he does, Arsenal still have Saliba to deal with high balls, and David Raya has the third highest cross-catching rate among all goalkeepers playing in the top 5 European leagues.
Kiwior’s Weakness is in the Air, Even Rasmus Hojlund Can Bully Kiwior In the Air
Real can motivate their players in any way they want, but Los Blancos’ preparation has been disadvantageous from the start.
Wednesday night will be a crucial moment for Arsenal, and for Kiwior personally, stopping Mbappe and Vinicius to send Arsenal to the semi-finals will be an unforgettable feat for this surprise substitute.